Nigeria’s Electoral System, and many other African Countrys’, can borrow a leaf or two, from Kenya’s.
By Jude Thaddeus.
Image: Aljazeera.
Sub-sahara’s largest economy, and most populous Country, Nigeria, is going through a traditionally widely followed exercise. Its Presidential Election.
A Country with a population of slightly more than two hundred million (200 m) people - with half of whom who are being statistically clustered within the ‘deeply poor’ bracket. Meaning, matters Leadership and Governance cannot pass unfollowed. Not just by Nigerians themselves, but by widely everyone else interested in matters Governance - and Africa’s development at large.
The February 25th Election saw Bola Tinubu being declared the president elect. With Peter Obi - the trending candidate - who came in third, indicating that he will be heading to the Courts to seek justice on claims that the Electoral process was greatly manipulated.
But whether or not there were Electoral manipulations (that’s for the Courts to decide - however controversial it might sound in an African setting) there are a number of electoral improvements that Nigeria can make to firm up the democratic processes of sub Sahara’s largest economy.
Bola Tinubu being declared winner with a 37% vote lead casts a bit of skepticism on the issue of ‘popular mandate’ - Even with the other principle of attaining the 25% threshold in at least two thirds of the States having been attained. (Unless proved otherwise in Court as is being insinuated)
Having a 37% approval rate basically means that 63% of your Country feels that they can have a better alternative - watering down your ability to claim a popular mandate.
In Kenya, the bare minimum for a candidate to claim a popular mandate, is to first garner half of the total valid votes cast, then add an additional one vote to cross the half mark. That is the 50% plus 1 vote principle.
If this is not attained in the first round of voting, then the top two candidates face off in a run off. With only two candidates, the one with the highest vote must, by default, have garnered more than 50%. Giving the president elect a popular mandate.
I could not fail to notice the disappointment, especially from Nigerians in the diaspora, as they were reduced to mere spectators and cheerleaders in their own Country’s democratic process. A very important process for that matter. That, they were not allowed to vote in the diaspora, unless they returned home.
Following in their online activities, and also joining in in Peter Obi’s Twitter Spaces with the so called ‘Obidient Followers’, I saw followers who were burning with passion, even though the passion could not be converted to votes.
This is another area where Nigeria’s political players must push to be opened up. Diaspora needs to be allowed to vote. Especially now when statistically, seven (7), out of ten (10), Nigerian youth are hoping to get a chance to leave their Country for greener pastures anywhere else. Obviously, due to broken systems and increasing hardships.
Being a professional, or even just a wage laborer in a foreign land, does not in anyway negate your contribution to your own Country. And your contribution includes participating in your Country’s democratic processes.
Excluding such an important constituency, is akin to disenfranchising a specific area within your Country. And that is more than enough to put the entire election into question.
Nigeria’s diaspora remain a very important constituency, with the ability to influence a popular mandate.
Credible and Transparent Elections.
A credible election is one by which it’s levels of believability are very high. And this is achieved through transparent processes.
Over the years, electoral bodies in Africa have been banking on technology not just to improve the overall process, but also to build up the needed transparency.
Granting all this, it is still surprising to note that the just concluded election in Nigeria gave room for the electoral body to decide when to, or not to, apply certain aspects of technology.
For example, that the electronic transmission of results not being mandatory, and being left to the discretion of the electoral body.
This in itself is self defeating, since, what will the physical form be corroborated with? And vice versa! Especially now that certain polling stations had more than one physical form. How will the Courts tell the original from the fake?
Real time electronic transmission of forms come with them additional advantages. For instance, time stamp. You will be able to tell the date, and time in which a form was transmitted. In case any additional form pops up, then it would be easy to separate it.
Such a scenario was preempted in the Kenyan Courts before its 2022 elections. And a declaration was made that as much as the announcement made at the polling station was final, electronic transmission of that result remained mandatory.
Kenya’s election body went a step further and opened a public portal where any Kenyan, and any other interested party, could access real time results, and even download the forms for their own tabulation. This, in no doubt, multiplied the believability / transparency effect of its 2022 election.
This is something that Sub Sahara’s largest economy should be in a position to execute.
If, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi decide to head to the Courts to challenge Bola Tinubu’s declaration as president elect, then we should be able to learn more of the intrigues that might not be out of the bag yet through the Court process, as some quarters have indicated that that remains evidence for the Courts. Or possibly maybe, learn whether there exists no evidence against Tinubu’s declaration.
All these should then enable election, governance, and political players to continue to firm up processes and build more resilient democracies in the Continent - that positively impact the people’s lives.
It is also welcome to see a trend of non-violent post election outcomes (Save for a few instances). Possibly as a result of the faith that some of our electoral bodies have began to build.
Or - hoping this is not the case - it also could be as a result of the current generation’s election and political fatigue / apathy. This is yet another topic for another day.
About the author.
Jude Thaddeus is an Entrepreneur, a Sociopolitical Commentator / Strategist, Author, and Team Lead @ Brave Politics.
