2022 Elections and the Political Parties Confusions.

By. Jude Thaddeus.

Image: People Daily.

A few Weeks ago, I was privileged to join in in a Twitter space conversation as a speaker with the Imara Africa weekly Twitter space chat. The topic was on political parties, and political injustices.

We started off by going down memory lane, from where the earlier indegineous African political parties were formed, why they were formed, their impact, how and what political parties have transformed to be since then. But above all, how the so called common citizen relates and interacts with their preferred parties.

More than sixty years since the earlier formations were established, so much has changed. But, as things change, and as the 2022 elections nears, a lot of questions on our political parties remain unanswered. Or at least, remain vaguely answered.

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Kenya has almost a hundred registered political parties. But only a handful that meet the set out requirements. Majority, operate within the borderlines of the so called ‘briefcase parties’. Meaning, those that only exist for transactional purposes.

For one to observe some of the set rules, such as establishing party offices in more than half of the 47 Counties, have individuals ocuppying party leadership positions from National to grassroots levels, and have the set bare minimum party membership across the various Counties, one would definetely be required to mobilize a lot of resources. From capital, to human, to time. And of the few that are able to even set up party offices, they only do so when elections near, and close them immediately the elections are over.

It is due to such challenges that the Political parties act, established the political parties fund, to help support political parties. Because, at the end of the day, political parties remain fundamental to the growth of civic and Governance spaces. The fund thus supplements other revenue generating approaches such as membership fees, donations, investments, etcetera. Which again, only two or three parties with a National outlook are able to marshal.

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The political parties fund however, is limited to only those parties that meet certain requirements during elections. For instance, a party must have at least five percent (5%) of the total valid votes cast during an election for it to be considered for the fund. In this case again, only two or three parties end up benefiting — just by looking at Kenya’s current voting pattern. If two or three parties can jointly gunner more than ninety percent of total votes, that leaves little room for other parties to rise above the five percent threshold.

This then brings about another fundamental conversation. And that is; mergers and coalition building — Both as an attempt of joint resource mobilization, and also, election winning.

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After the 2017 general elections, only two parties, that is; Jubilee and ODM benefitted from the political parties fund after meeting the set requirements. Jubilee party was a merger of various other parties that collapsed to form one party. ODM on its part, was part of the larger NASA coalition. A coalition that experienced a rocky post election season that finally led to a split. Part of the reason being mistrust (to some extent, as a result of disputes emerging from the political parties fund share), that has spilled over into yet another coalition building attempts in the 2022 race.

This mistrust has thus dominated the 2022 pre election coalition building, making the process so difficult and confusing (to even the main players), and almost completely dissolving any thougths of mergers.

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It therefore does not require rocket science to establish why it became impossible for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), to convince various other parties working with it to merge into it, or, to establish why it is becoming very difficult for the Azimio outfit to establish whether it is Azimio La Umoja coalition, or Azimio coalition PARTY, or, Azimio - One Kenya coalition (party). The only thing that remains certain though, is that, just like UDA /Kenya Kwanza, the individual parties underneath the Azimo outfit are cork sure that they are not dissolving — and will remain independent whatever form the union will take. For their own preservation.

But other than that, what One Kenya Alliance (OKA), seem not to be sure about, is whether they are an independent coalition, or, whether they are joining Azimio coalition with their own coalition (which is impossible under the law), or, whether they are folding up OKA, to join Azimio as single independent parties. Since as things stand, OKA has already been swallowed up.

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Party Primaries.

The Political Party Primaries Bill, 2020 plus subsequent ammendments, brought in a new dynamic on how party Primaries are to be conducted. And one very fundamental addition was on the subject of nominations.

Whereas in the past, a political party would pick a voter register from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), and allow any registered voter from within a select Electoral area participate in party Primaries, this current legislation restricts participants to registered voters who equally are registered members of the said party.

So, for one to vote in a party primary, they have to make sure that they are equally registered as members of that party.

The challenge here is that Kenyans are fanatics of individual politicians, and they follow them to whatever party they migrate to. Rarely will they register themselves with that party. After Primaries and after the elections, they forget about the party.

Furthermore, the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), has been at pains trying to explain how Kenyans found their names randomly distributed across Political parties that they never ever registered with. And the only solution the ORPP has provided so far, is that, Kenyans can deregister from those parties online. Majority of Kenyans, are yet to follow that.

And so, as the party Primaries start and end within the next month, confusions on who can vote and who cannot vote in which party, is inevitable.

It is worth noting however, that in a functioning Democracy, both an open nomination, and a closed one, are acceptable. Or even a semi-open nomination. One should not be restricted via legislation. Rather, political parties should strengthen themselves to a point where citizens willingly become registered members. (For the purposes of clarity. An open nomination is where any registered voter within an electoral area can be invited to vote in a particular political party nomination. A closed one is whereby only registered party members participate. A semi open one is whereby a party applies both methods depending on the area. For instance, in an area where the party is not popular, it can employ open nomination inviting registered voters to participate in its nomination)

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The only good thing is that the High Court of Kenya has given directions to allow political parties decide how they want to conduct this oncoming party Primaries before the new Legislations are implemented - and also as the Court await to give directions on related submissions before it.

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Finally, the formation of pre election coalitions, or, the new proposed coalition PARTY, will again put to test the subjects of joint nominations, and zonings- as informally referred.

If Azimio ends up as a coalition PARTY, will it for instance, have one Gubernatorial aspirant in Nairobi? Or senotorial aspirant, or women rep? If it ends up as just a coalition, will it end up zoning some areas? For instance, will the coastal region be left for ODM to battle it out with UDA? Or, will Governor Amason Kingi demand an electoral area preserved for his PAA party? Or, will it be free for all, including Jubilee and Wiper fielding candidates? - Just as it was under the NASA coalition of 2017?

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In the Nairobi senotorial race, the ODM aspirant Edwin Sifuna, and Jubilee aspirant Maina Kamanda, have already started to plead with each other, for the other to shelve his ambitions. How will this shape out both in-house, and among their supporters?

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And among the very many other Political parties, who capitalize on defectors, what happens to them if the new law barring defections after nominations come to play? That’s if those who have already challenged it in Court — like Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria don’t succeed in turning it around?

This year’s presidential elections will put our Political parties and the accompanying laws through an intensive test. But will it finally serve to strengthen this institution that is the POLITICAL PARTY in our democracy?

About the Author;

Jude Thaddeus is an Entrepreneur, a Sociopolitical Commentator / Strategist, Author, and Team Lead @ Brave Politics.